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Thai Rice Exports Plunge 32% in the First Two Months Due to India’s Market Return and Increased Global Production
Thai rice exports are facing a tough battle! The Thai Rice Exporters Association revealed that in the first two months of this year, Thailand's rice exports fell by 32%, especially white rice, which plunged by 54%, as India resumed exports after a two-year hiatus, coupled with a significant increase in global rice production, with global rice stocks rising by 10 million tons, or 532 million tons worldwide, while Thailand still targets this year's exports at 7.5 million tons.
Key Factors Behind the Export Decline
India’s Market Return – India has resumed full-scale rice exports after a two-year pause, with the highest production in 30 years.
Thai Rice is More Expensive – The average price of Thai 5% white rice is $415-419 per ton, whereas Vietnam’s price is $393-397 per ton, and Pakistan’s is only $382-386 per ton.
Currency Volatility – Fluctuations in exchange rates make it difficult to set stable rice prices.
US Trade Policy – If the US imposes a 10% import tariff on Thai rice, the price could increase by $100 per ton.
Global Rice Market Situation
India remains the top exporter with 22.50 million tons, a 26.4% increase.
Thailand and Vietnam both export 7.50 million tons, but Thailand’s exports declined by 24.2%, while Vietnam’s fell by 17%.
Pakistan exports 5.30 million tons, a decline of 18.2%.
The Philippines remains the largest importer at 5.40 million tons, up 1.9%.
China’s rice imports increased by 35% to 2.20 million tons.
Solutions for Thai Rice
Reducing Costs – Farmers face rising costs for fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel. Government intervention is crucial. Developing New Varieties – Thailand has the world’s lowest rice yield per rai at 400 kg, compared to Vietnam’s 800 kg and the US’s 1,000 kg. Without improvements, Thailand risks losing more market share.
Data source: : ThaiPBS